第52回 データ同化セミナー(12/19)のご案内

12/19のデータ同化セミナーについてのご案内です。
今回のセミナーでは、
気象庁気象研究所の中澤哲夫氏よりご講演頂きます。

※どなたでもご参加いただけますが、入館に手続きが必要なため、
事前に下記までご連絡をお願い致します。
da-seminar(please remove here)@riken.jp
以下URLに随時情報を更新しています。
http://data-assimilation.riken.jp/en/events/da_seminar/

以下、詳細です。

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Date:    *Wednesday 19 December 2018, 15:30-16:30 *
Place:   Seminar Room at R-CCS
Language:  English
Speaker:  Dr. Tetsuo Nakazawa (Meteorological Research Institute (MRI))

*Title: Is the Trend in Tropical Cyclone Formation Frequency due to Global
Warming?*

*Abstract: *

Under the warmer climate projection, several models simulate that the
annual number of tropical cyclone formation will decrease, but the intense
tropical cyclone number will increase globally. The former may be related
with the stabler condition of the atmosphere, and the latter may be related
with the possible rapid intensification under the more humid condition near
the surface.  To understand the former hypothesis, Arakawa and Schubert’s
cumulus parameterization method has been utilized to estimate all possible
cloud types at each grid, using the ECMWF reanalysis dataset (ERA20C) from
1900 to 2010. The result shows that the tropical atmosphere is getting
stabler and the cloud top height of the deepest cloud type is getting
lower. This may explain why the annual number the tropical cyclone
formation will decrease in future.

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